Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis Book

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Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis

By Theodore J. Gordon,Mariana Todorova
  • ISBN Code: : 3030184374
  • Publisher : Springer
  • Pages : 194
  • Category : Social Science
  • Reads : 610
  • Book Compatibility : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Pdf : future-studies-and-counterfactual-analysis.pdf

Book Excerpt :

In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.

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Book Short Summary:

"Measured by the Gini coefficient, income inequality in Brazil rose from 0.57 in 1981 to 0.63 in 1989, before falling back to 0.56 in 2004. This latest figure would lower Brazil's world inequality rank from 2nd (in 1989) to 10th (in 2004). Poverty incidence also followed an inverted U-curve over the past quarter century, rising from 0.30 in 1981 to 0.33 in 1993, before falling to 0.22 in 2004. Using standard decomposition techniques, this paper presents a preliminary investigation of the determinants of Brazil's distributional reversal over this period. The rise in inequality in the 1980s appears to have been driven by increases in the educational attainment of the population in a context of convex returns, and by high and accelerating inflation. While the secular decline in inequality, which began in 1993, is associated with declining inflation, it also appears to have been driven by four structural and policy changes which have so far not attracted sufficient attention in the literature, namely sharp declines in the returns to education; pronounced rural-urban convergence; increases in social assistance transfers targeted to the poor; and a possible decline in racial inequality. Although poverty dynamics since the Real Plan of 1994 have been driven primarily by economic growth, the decline in inequality has also made a substantial contribution to poverty reduction. "--World Bank web site.

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Book Short Summary:

Ylva Grufstedt investigates the role of counterfactuals in uses of history through game designers and through digital strategy games. It discusses the content, form and perspectives that define different types of counterfactuals in the context of game-making – an effort to outline and detail the values and frameworks that shape the past in this popular media.

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Book Short Summary:

Written in a comprehensive yet accessible style, this Handbook introduces readers to a range of modern empirical methods with applications in microeconomics, illustrating how to use two of the most popular software packages, Stata and R, in microeconometric applications.

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  • Pdf File: environment-scarcity-and-violence.pdf

Book Short Summary:

The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence.

Robots and AI

By Lili Yan Ing,Gene M. Grossman
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : Taylor & Francis
  • Book Code : 1000626482
  • Total of Pages : 370
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Members : 747
  • Pdf File: robots-and-ai.pdf

Book Short Summary:

Robots and artificial intelligence (AI) are powerful forces that will likely have large impacts on the size, direction, and composition of international trade flows. This book discusses how industrial robots, automation, and AI affect international growth, trade, productivity, employment, wages, and welfare. The book explains new approaches on how robots and artificial intelligence affect the world economy by presenting detailed theoretical framework and country-specific as well as firm-product level-specific exercises. This book will be a useful reference for those researching on robots, automation, AI and their economic impacts on trade, industry, and employment. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Access to Non-Summary Clinical Trial Data for Research Purposes Under EU Law

By Daria Kim
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : Springer Nature
  • Book Code : 3030867781
  • Total of Pages : 300
  • Category : Law
  • Members : 249
  • Pdf File: access-to-non-summary-clinical-trial-data-for-research-purposes-under-eu-law.pdf

Book Short Summary:

This book draws a unique perspective on the regulation of access to clinical trial data as a case on research and knowledge externalities. Notwithstanding numerous potential benefits for medical research and public health, many jurisdictions have struggled to ensure access to clinical trial data, even at the level of the trial results. Pro-access policy initiatives have been strongly opposed by research-based drug companies arguing that mandatory data disclosure impedes their innovation incentives. Conventionally, access to test data has been approached from the perspective of transparency and research ethics. The book offers a complementary view and considers access to individual patient-level trial data for exploratory analysis as a matter of research and innovation policy. Such approach appears to be especially relevant in the data-driven economy where digital data constitutes a valuable economic resource. The study seeks to define how the rules of access to clinical trial data should be designed to reconcile the policy objectives of leveraging the research potential of data through secondary analysis, on the one hand, and protecting economic incentives of research-based drug companies, on the other hand. Overall, it is argued that the mainstream innovation-based justification for exclusive control over the outcomes of research and development can hardly rationalise trial sponsors’ control over primary data from trials. Instead, access to such data and its robust analysis should be prioritised.

Business Models and Modelling

By
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
  • Book Code : 1785604627
  • Total of Pages : 480
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Members : 609
  • Pdf File: business-models-and-modelling.pdf

Book Short Summary:

In this volume leading scholars from North America, Europe and Asia come together to explore the topic of business models that takes the demand side (customers and their engagement) seriously. The first part deals with the model dimension of business models. The second part deals with business models and change.

A Life Course Approach to Healthy Ageing

By Diana Kuh,Rachel Cooper,Rebecca Hardy,Marcus Richards,Yoav Ben-Shlomo
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : OUP Oxford
  • Book Code : 0191008184
  • Total of Pages : 288
  • Category : Medical
  • Members : 775
  • Pdf File: a-life-course-approach-to-healthy-ageing.pdf

Book Short Summary:

Healthy ageing has long been a neglected area of epidemiological research as the traditional focus has been on specific chronic diseases of older life. There is a growing consensus from scientists, research funders and policy makers that ageing itself needs to be studied from an interdisciplinary and life course perspective, to inform strategies for reducing the societal and individual costs of an ageing population. A Life Course Approach to Healthy Ageing is a synthesis of life course perspectives in epidemiology and interdisciplinary perspectives in ageing research. It brings together expert investigators of maturing birth cohort and ageing studies, cross-cutting methodologists, and authorities in ageing research and knowledge transfer from across the world in one wide-ranging volume. Contributors discuss how aspects of healthy ageing are conceptualised, defined and measured; relate to each other; change across life; and are influenced by biological, psychological and social factors operating from early life onwards. They identify research gaps, and suggest how evidence from observational studies can be strengthened through improved study design and longitudinal analysis, thereby increasing the research contribution to practice or policy change. The book considers how we might delay or slow down the progressive, generalised impairment of function that occurs at the individual, body system and cellular levels, as people grow older. It also considers the determinants of wellbeing in older people, including personal fulfilment, positive emotions and social relationships. Broad in scope, discussing topics from genetics to psychological and social wellbeing, A Life Course Approach to Healthy Ageing is a key resource for epidemiologists, social scientists, clinicians, public health physicians, policy makers and practitioners with a research interest in healthy ageing.

Understanding the U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

By Beth Bailey,Richard H. Immerman
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : NYU Press
  • Book Code : 1479836265
  • Total of Pages : 368
  • Category : History
  • Members : 113
  • Pdf File: understanding-the-u-s-wars-in-iraq-and-afghanistan.pdf

Book Short Summary:

Choice Outstanding Academic Title of 2016 Investigates the causes, conduct, and consequences of the recent American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Understanding the United States’ wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is essential to understanding the United States in the first decade of the new millennium and beyond. These wars were pivotal to American foreign policy and international relations. They were expensive: in lives, in treasure, and in reputation. They raised critical ethical and legal questions; they provoked debates over policy, strategy, and war-planning; they helped to shape American domestic politics. And they highlighted a profound division among the American people: While more than two million Americans served in Iraq and Afghanistan, many in multiple deployments, the vast majority of Americans and their families remained untouched by and frequently barely aware of the wars conducted in their name, far from American shores, in regions about which they know little. Understanding the U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan gives us the first book-length expert historical analysis of these wars. It shows us how they began, what they teach us about the limits of the American military and diplomacy, and who fought them. It examines the lessons and legacies of wars whose outcomes may not be clear for decades. In 1945 few Americans could imagine that the country would be locked in a Cold War with the Soviet Union for decades; fewer could imagine how history would paint the era. Understanding the U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan begins to come to grips with the period when America became enmeshed in a succession of “low intensity” conflicts in the Middle East.

Paradoxes of Time Travel

By Ryan Wasserman
  • File : Pdf, ePub, Mobi, Kindle
  • Publisher : Oxford University Press
  • Book Code : 0192511815
  • Total of Pages : 240
  • Category : Philosophy
  • Members : 808
  • Pdf File: paradoxes-of-time-travel.pdf

Book Short Summary:

Ryan Wasserman presents a wide-ranging exploration of puzzles raised by the possibility of time travel, including the grandfather paradox, the bootstrapping paradox, and the twin paradox of special relativity. He draws out their implications for our understanding of time, tense, freedom, fatalism, causation, counterfactuals, laws of nature, persistence, change, and mereology. The Paradoxes of Time Travel is written in an accessible style, and filled with entertaining examples from physics, science fiction, and popular culture.